ISIS Advance on Baghdad

Finally, Washington has begun to wake up to the rapidly deepening crisis in Iraq. Barack Hussein Obama II, the 44th and current President of the United States, who just could not wait to ‘cut and run’ out of Iraq in 2011, is realizing that, despite the thousands of military and civilian lives lost and the billions of US dollars ‘invested’ in the country, it’s descending rapidly into a fiasco of enormous proportions.

William Hague blah blah blah

Background 1

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (aka Abu Dua), the lead player of Isis/IsiL, was little known before 2010 when he became leader of al-Qa’ida in Iraq after the death of the previous leadership group in an attack by a combined force of United States and Iraqi forces. It is believed that his real name is Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Samarrai and that he is a Sunni, and was born in Samarra in 1971. He has a University of Baghdad degrees in Islamic Studies, including history, poetry and genealogy. He was an American prisoner in Bocca Camp, in southern Iraq, from 2005 – 09, probably as a result of activities as a militant preacher, with his own militia in Diyala province, in support of Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti, President of Iraq 16 July 1979 – 9 April 2003.

The destruction of the leadership of al-Qa’ida in Iraq, in 2010, marked a nadir in the organisation. The take-over of the leadership by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was accompanied by increasingly detailed organisation which even included the publication of ‘annual reports’ of its activities in each Iraqi province. Nonetheless, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi remained a shadowy figure with few knowing where he was located or, even, what he looked like. It is reported by prisoners of al-Qa’ida in Iraq, that he would wear a mask in order to maintain his anonymity.

The outbreak of the conflict in Syria allowed al-Baghdadi to expand his area of operations and undertake a series of carefully planned and brutal operations against both the Syrian Army and, remarkably, other jihardist fighters. The success of his campaigns may reflect on the composition of his leadership group, and advisers, who are believed to include senior figures from the previous Iraqi military (disbanded on 23 May 2003 by Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2 issued by US Administrator of Iraq Paul Bremer) and Ba’ath Party (Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party meaning ‘renaissance’ or ‘resurrection’) members.

Al-Baghdadi directed experienced fighters from Iraq to Syria, to establish Jabhat al-Nusra as his initial al-Qa’ida franchise but separated from this in 2013. As previously posted Isis/IsiL tactics are exceptionally brutal and the areas of Syria under their control are subject to Sharia law with torture, public executions (including be-headings) and the indoctrination of children and adolescents.

Background 2

Whilst the chaotic and disorderly retreat of Iraqi security forces (police and military) continues, with only minimal attempts at holding Kirkuk, Iranian Forces are reported to have crossed into Iraq. These are believed to be Iranian Special Forces (Saberin) and 150 members of the highly trained Republican Guard (Quds Force), their aim will be to bolster the Iraqi forces in the defence of Baghdad and any attempt to regain control of the lost cities including Mosul, Tikrit and Fallujah. The dismal performance of the Iraqi forces, attributed by a British ex-military commentator to a reluctance to fire on their own countrymen, may necessitate a return to the World War I practice of ‘pour encourager les autres’

The involvement of Iran in Syria to support President Bashar Hafez al-Assad (approximately 1500 members of the Quds Force) and, now, Iraq demonstrates that Tehran recognises the rapidly deteriorating situation across the Middle East, not least that Mosul is only 250 miles from the Iranian border and a gateway to the country. Ali Abdollahi, Deputy Interior Minister, stated yesterday that ‘The security of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s borders has been enhanced we cannot wait for incidents to take place, we always implement pre-emptive measure’

The Iranian leadership is a significant backer of the increasingly isolated Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki and is probably in despair at his apparent impotence at quashing the Sunni Isis/IsiL rebellion and the weakness of his control over his Shia-dominated government that could only muster 128 of 325 Members of Parliament for today’s ‘emergency vote'; whilst the Kurdish and Sunni members boycotted the session, the other members may have been otherwise engaged in packing bags and arranging overseas trips.

The Iranian troops are headed by General Hasan Gohari, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war (22 September 1980 – 20 August 1988; 500,000 Iraqi and Iranian soldiers, with an equivalent number of civilians, are believed to have died). General Gohari is believed to have arrived in Baghdad, with Major General Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Quds Force, prior to the collapse of Mosul.